Q1 came in slower than the prior three years — but March had other ideas.
After a sluggish start to 2026, the market shifted in the final week to ten days of March. By month’s end, closed units were only 4.7% behind March 2025, and total sales volume was down just 0.8%. A near-comeback, driven in part by a luxury segment that continues to outperform.
Median & Average Prices Hold Near Flat
The median SFR price edged down marginally — from $481,110 to $480,000 — while the average SFR closing price pulled back more notably, from $644,246 to $627,015. Neither signal distress; both reflect a market finding its footing after an active 2025.
Luxury Led the Way
March recorded 209 closings above $1 million, including 29 above $3 million. The upper end of the market isn’t waiting for rate relief — it’s setting the pace.
Inventory & Pricing Dynamics
Overall residential inventory has climbed to 4.1 months, reflecting a wave of new listings alongside the March sales uptick. Available units increased by nearly 500, while pending units dipped slightly. The Over Pricing Index dropped to 48% — a meaningful signal that sellers are recalibrating.
Still, nearly 25% of all available listings have been sitting for 120+ days without entering escrow. Correctly priced homes are moving. Overpriced ones are accumulating days on market.
The Financing Shift Worth Watching
One of the more telling data points this month: conventional financing rebounded in March closings after a multi-year slide, while cash purchases dropped sharply. Cash and conventional financing have both trended lower since mid-2021 — but FHA financing has climbed steadily over that same period. March’s conventional rebound may reflect buyers re-engaging with rate locks as expectations for Fed movement firm up. It’s a trend worth watching.
